Comment They knew this technique, but chose not to use it? (Score 3, Insightful) 30
I mean, DeepSeek is kicking ass in reasoning, did it on the cheap, so why did it take their effort to get OpenAI to spring a new reasoning model to the public (and make it cheaper?).
This is the fundamental issue with these companies... closed source AI, with the biggest, best tech kept behind closed doors. That's the BEST reading of all of this.
At the core of it all is the notion that these companies - who WILL need to spend lots of money - are spending money on the wrong things. Bigger models aren't really going to crack the AGI/ASI barrier, and the current models cost a lot on inference. There are lots of gains in efficiency to be made, and that is what is key about DeepSeek. Inference needs to be cheaper for these "Frontier" AI companies.
Even if you had an "ASI model" with more data than the entire internet could provide, the resulting queries would be unsustainable, given the efficiencies in the o1-level models, for example. Likewise, training up such a model is ridiculously expensive (in compute, energy, infrastructure) still, without getting those gains in efficiency.
I see a world where we get open source models that will run well and cheap - locally on your phones, even... and do a pretty reasonable, accurate, and hallucination-free job. A mid-tier where queries are offloaded to server farms for more complex agentic work (the new employees), and a god-tier AI level, ASI with tendrils sniffing into every nook and cranny for information, that will cost the big bucks, but solve big problems ("cure cancer", "cold fusion") and still be cheaper than human research.
The problem is that a lot of these CEOs lack the vision, often caught up in their own egos or company pride to see the forest for all the trees.