Comment Re: Misleading (Score 1) 239
You my friend need to study up on your queueing theory. Your fundamental flawed assumption is that the time it takes to die is identical to that that it takes to recover, but it doesnâ(TM)t seem that way. Those that die tend to go quickly whereas this virus seems to take a very long time to clear.
Letâ(TM)s use an example, say there is a disease that takes 2 weeks to recover if you are going to recover and 1 week to die if you are going to die and that 100 new people get infected per week
After the first week 10 people die, 0 recover completely, by your metric the death rate would be 100%
Now the next week 90 people recover but 10 more die, now the death rate by that calculation is 18%, closer to the real rate but still much higher. Every week it gets lower and lower until it converges on the real rate. There is no indication yet that we have reached that convergence with Coronavirus